Yesterday,
I had an interesting argument with an energy expert: are the winds of change blowing
over the Arab region threatening modern geography? Will sovereign countries-as we
know them today- such as Syria, Jordan, Iraq and maybe Turkey cease to exist in
their current form in a decade or two? I believed not, but slowly the idea is sinking in, that the
battle in Syria is tantamount to a black hole. One where pulling forces are so
strong, they are drawing in neighboring countries- Iraq, Jordan and Turkey at a
later stage- in an inexorable spiral. The outcome of the war in Syria will open
doorways onto Iraq, a country currently split between Sunnis and Shiites. A
Sunni and maybe Islamic dominated Syria will embolden Iraqi Sunnis. After all,
the stakes are high in a country blessed with many riches. Jordan would be next
in falling into the new Islamic wormhole. If Syria’s power structure was to
radically change, it would be very difficult for the King Abdullah to contain
possible repercussions. Trans-Jordanians already fear a possible Palestinian West Bank unification with Jordan, which would disrupt
the demographic balance in favor of the Palestinian population, already a
majority in the Kingdom. Turkey
may be the last to feel the winds of change, nonetheless it cannot remain
unscathed, as the emergence of a Kurdish country is becoming day by day an
ineluctable reality. However, one main
game changer remains in the performance of Islamic states that have already
risen from the rubbles of the revolution. The credibility of Islamic parties is
tested every day: can both the Brotherhood and the Salafis meet the promises they
have made to disillusioned populations? Are they capable of ruling successfully
in a region plagued by corruption, unemployment, slowing growth and poverty?
Can they rise-up to the economic challenges? The answer to this particular
question will certainly define what road the region will take. Arab countries
will nonetheless have to go through a much needed self-cleansing process, one
that will be tainted with radicalism, injustice and bloody battles...
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment